I think we can safely say that CG, Silvia, Victoria and Daniel are 100% sure to attend the Nobel events but after the changes in the representation, it will be interesting to see if Carl Philip and Sofia can attend. Last year CP, Sofia, Madeleine and Chris were suddenly off from the attendance list of the formal gathering of the Swedish Academy, an event they have been included for years, so perhaps the next event with only four royals will be Nobel? If so then it will be very dissapointing decision.
Neverless, so far there's no official announcement which royals will be attending the Nobel. So for now we can keep our fingers crossed that Madeleine can attend this year. She's so fun to watch at the tiara events and its just not the same without her